SocraticGadfly: Melo. Thunder. Wow

September 23, 2017

Melo. Thunder. Wow

Woj just called it, so it must be official.

Thunder get Carmelo Anthony and send the Knicks Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott and their second-round draft pick. (Actually, that's a second-rounder the Thunder got from the Bulls, so it could be decent.)

So, there will be ultimate questions of who won this deal, both short-term and long-term. And with that, see the poll at right.

Before or after you vote, here's my take and analysis, along with questions.

Will Melo be the 3 and Paul George the 4 for the Thunder, or other way around? Or will that be kind of fluid?

Next: How do Kanter and Kristaps Porzingis mesh in New York? What does that mean for playing time for Joakim Noah? (Not a lot, anyway, if he's still injury-riddled.) Willy Hernangomez? That's a bit of a backlog of big men now. Likely the Knicks aren't done trading, but to whom?

(Sidebar: They're over the cap. Kanter's contract is player option for next year, but I would expect him to invoke it. But, how many takers are there for an injury-riddled Noah or a defenseless Kanter?)

Also, does McDermott have any more growth potential there? If so, that could be interesting.

ESPN has more on the Knicks' road ahead. It notes, as many have known, that the team played better with the Unicorn not having either Melo or Derrick Rose on the floor with him. So, that's good. But they have about bupkis at the 3 and are thin at PG. See below for more.

In Oklahoma City, does this convince either George or franchise icon Russell Westbrook to stay after next year? Remember, Melo only has one more year than them on his contact. For this next year, that frees up more time for Steven Adams, who is more mobile than Kanter.

Early consensus is that this is all-in for the Thunder, and based on Lil Russ likely staying.

And, Lil Russ has now signed his $205M offer. So, let's see where they're at a year from now. Sam Presti might make a run at PG-13, swallow hard on the lux tax, and hope he signs him. Then, after that one year of massive contracts, let Carmelo walk after he exercises his player option. At that point, he'd know more of Adams' ceiling and how much to pay him anyway.

And now, PG-13 is dropping hints that the Lil Russ signing makes him at least more likely to stay after this year.

Thunder at No. 4 in the West now, after Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, if they weren't before, with George? Actually, both may be ahead of the Spurs if Kawhi is missing at least all the preseason.

So, Warriors, Rockets, Thunder right now. Not ready to push Thunder ahead of the Rockets yet.

And now, the other side of the coin.

Knicks? Ends drama and gets their salaries lower. Gives the Unicorn a chance to be the team leader. Certainly makes them different. Not sure that it makes them better in the short term.

Long-term, if it accelerates the Unicorn, and with young small forward Mindaugas Kutzminskas perhaps growing, along with McDermott, that could be an interesting team. They really need better point guards.

The team, when Zen Guru Phil was still the GM, did draft Frank Ntilikina to be the PG of the future, although he's viewed as a defense-first person. Maybe that future is now. I'm not seeing it in an aging Jerrett Jack, nor in the Ron Baker that's supposably a favorite of coach Jeff Hornacek who has new, non-triangle challenges. Maybe Tim Hardaway Jr. gets more of a look at PG as well as SG?

I don't know if the Knicks made a run at Adams instead of Kanter or not. He has a new contract, starting this year, so the cap would have matched even without a McDermott throw-in. OTOH, the Knicks may not have wanted a burden of him at $25M a year and rising for four years. I think Adams still has some upside, but I don't know how much.

And, speaking of bucks, Woj notes that, without paying a BUNCH of tax money — and remember, they traded James Harden because of cap fears — bringing back Lil Russ, PG-13 and keeping Melo next year, especially with that Adams possible albatross — will be pricey. Woj says the Thunder will pay more than $27M in lux tax THIS year. That's without a new contract for Lil Russ, if he signs. (That said, ESPN notes that OKC offered Harden an extension to the contract he then had in place before trading him. Red Satan, though, does not note that even for that version of Harden, the extension was kind of a lowball.)

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